Where Groupon Shares Go from Here? This List Gives a Hint

As industry watchers are well aware, the daily deals giant Groupon had a hugely successful IPO on Friday, with its shares closing at 30 percent above their $20 asking price. But where the stock will head from here is anyone’s guess, says John Fitzgibbon, founder of IPOScoop.com, an Edison, N.J.-based research firm.

Hot shares typically stay where they are after opening-day insanity. “If all goes well, and a stock is priced above the [initial] range, first day trading is always enormous compared with what follows,” Fitzgibbon says. “It’s day traders and it’s institutional investors who are rearranging their portfolios.” What immediately follows isn’t quite as exciting — or nerve-racking. “The second day, volume and volatility papers down as the hot money flows out in search of the next crap game. The third day out, [even fewer shares] move.” Eventually, he notes, shares “sort of fall into a no man’s land until the quiet period ends.”

After that, all companies, Groupon included, fall into a whole new category. “Groupon came to town and it create a circus atmosphere,” says Fitzgibbon. “But in another 40 days, when we begin to see trading from some of the big players,” —  along with analyses and price targets — it will become “a real investment vehicle.”

At that point, anything can happen, as you might surmise looking through the last six months of tech IPOs. In fact, while some have shot up nearly 100 percent (Fusion-io), others have seen their shares fall hard and fast (FriendFinder Networks).

A strong first day suggests that Groupon’s investors have reason to feel optimistic. Still, as you’ll see, it’s no guarantee. Of the tech companies to come public in the last six months, nine with opening day gains remain firmly in positive-return territory. Investors in six other new issues aren’t quite so lucky.

The data in this slideshow comes care of IPOscoop.com. To see all companies that have listed in the U.S. in 2011, click here.

[slideshow]

[slide title=”Groupon”]

Groupon

What It Does: Online daily deals service

Went Public: 11/4

Ticker: GRPN

Offering Price: $20

First Day Close: $26.11

Current Price: $26.11

Return to Date: 30.55%

[slide title=”Ubiquiti Networks“]

Ubiquiti Networks

What It Does: Wireless technology provider

Went Public: 10/14

Ticker: UBNT

Offering Price: $15.00

First Day Close: $17.50

Current Price: $19.27

Return to Date: 28.47%

[slide title=”Carbonite“]

Carbonite

What It Does: Sells data and file backup software

Went Public: 8/11

Ticker: CARB

Offering Price: $10.00

First Day Close: $12.35

Current Price: $11.32

Return to Date: 13.20%

[slide title=”Tangoe“]

Tangoe

What It Does: Makes telecom expense management software

Went Public: 7/27

Ticker: TNGO

Offering Price: $10.00

First Day Close: $11.65

Current Price: $12.97

Return to Date: 29.70%

[slide title=”Zillow“]

Zillow

What It Does: Online real estate marketplace

Went Public: 7/20

Ticker: Z

Offering Price: $20.00

First Day Close: $35.77

Current Price: $32.63

Return to Date: 63.15%

[slide title=”HomeAway“]

HomeAway

What It Does: Online vacation rental service

Went Public: 6/29

Ticker: AWAY

Offering Price: $27.00

First Day Close: $40.21

Current Price: $34.21

Return to Date: 26.70%

[slide title=”Bankrate“]

Bankrate

What It Does: Manages numerous personal finance sites

Went Public: 6/17

Ticker: RATE

Offering Price: $15.00

First Day Close: $15.34

Current Price: $20.58

Return to Date: 37.20%

[slide title=”Fusion-io“]

Fusion-io

What It Does: Operates a storage memory platform

Went Public: 6/9

Ticker: FIO

Offering Price: $19.00

First Day Close: $22.50

Current Price: $37.25

Return to Date: 96.05%

[slide title=”Yandex“]

Yandex

What It Does: Russia’s most popular search engine

Went Public: 5/24

Ticker: YNDX

Offering Price: $25.00

First Day Close: $38.84

Current Price: $28.55

Return to Date: 14.20%

[slide title=”LinkedIn“]

LinkedIn

What It Does: Online Business Networking service

Went Public:

Ticker: LNKD

Offering Price: $45.00

First Day Close: $94.25

Current Price: $82.37

Return to Date: 83.04%

[slide title=”COMPANIES WHOSE STOCKS IS DOWN POST IPO“]

Not all companies have had such a good run since going public last May. In fact, some have seen their shares fall so far that it’s not beyond imagination that one in particular — FriendFinder Networks — could see itself delisted not so long from now.

[slide title=”NetQin Mobile“]

NetQin Mobile

What It Does: Produces mobile security software for smartphones and tablets

Went Public: 5/5

Ticker: NQ

Offering Price: $11.50

First Day Close: $9.30

Current Price: $5.49

Return to Date: -52.26%

[slide title=”Renren“]

Renren

What It Does: Chinese social networking site

Went Public: 5/4

Ticker: RENN

Offering Price: $14.00

First Day Close: $18.01

Current Price: $5.28

Return to Date: -62.29%

[slide title=”Boingo Wireless“]

Boingo Wireless

What It Does: Wifi software and services

Went Public: 5/4

Ticker: WIFI

Offering Price: $13.50

First Day Close: $12.10

Current Price: $7.76

Return to Date: -42.52%

[slide title=”Jiayuan.com International“]

Jiayuan.com International

What It Does: Chinese online dating site

Went Public: 5/11

Ticker: DATE

Offering Price: $11.00

First Day Close: $10.82

Current Price: $8.79

Return to Date: -20.09%

[slide title=”Phoenix New Media“]

Phoenix New Media

What It Does: Chinese news content provider, via the Internet, mobile, and TV

Went Public: 5/12

Ticker: FENG

Offering Price: $11.00

First Day Close: $14.75

Current Price: $4.70

Return to Date: -57.27%

[slide title=”FriendFinder Networks“]

FriendFinder Networks

What It Does: Adult entertainment company whose Internet sites include Penthouse and AdultFriendFinder

Went Public: 5/11

Ticker: FFN

Offering Price: $10.00

First Day Close: $7.85

Current Price: $1.85

Return to Date: -81.50%

[slide title=”The Active Network“]

The Active Network

What It Does: Online registration and event software

Went Public: 5/25

Ticker: ACTV

Offering Price: $15.00

First Day Close: $15.90

Current Price: $13.24

Return to Date: -11.73%

[slide title=”Freescale Semiconductor“]

Freescale Semiconductor

What It Does: Makes microprocessors and semiconductors

Went Public: 5/26

Ticker: FSL

Offering Price: $18.00

First Day Close: $18.33

Current Price: $12.75

Return to Date: -29.17%

[slide title=”Solazyme“]

Solazyme

What It Does: Renewable oil and bioproducts

Went Public: 5/27

Ticker: SZYM

Offering Price: $18.00

First Day Close: $20.71

Current Price: $9.91

Return to Date: – 44.94%

[slide title=”Pandora Media“]

Pandora Media

What It Does: Internet radio and recommendation service

Went Public: 6/15

Ticker: P

Offering Price: $16.00

First Day Close: $17.42

Current Price: $15.22

Return to Date: -4.88%

[slide title=”Skullcandy“]

Skullcandy

What It Does: Makes headphones, earbuds, and headsets

Went Public: 7/20

Ticker: SKUL

Offering Price: $20.00

First Day Close: $20.00

Current Price: $17.14

Return to Date: -14.30%

[slide title=”Tudou Holdings“]

Tudou Holdings

What It Does: Chinese online video site

Went Public: 8/17

Ticker: TUDO

Offering Price: $29.00

First Day Close: $25.56

Current Price: $15.00

Return to Date: -48.28%

[/slideshow]